Scott McNealy's 2004 Predictions

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News: Scott McNealy's 2004 Predictions

  1. Scott McNealy's 2004 Predictions (28 messages)

    Scott McNealy has joined in the new year fun, and come up with his predictions for 2004. His five predictions will obviously fit with the Sun agenda, and cover network computing, virus attacks, software licensing, and more.

    "Network computing is at a tipping point, as the race to connect everything of value is driving widespread adoption of innovations like Java technology, and hundreds of millions, and soon billions, of devices get on the network and need to share information securely and reliably."

    Read Scott McNealy's 2004 Predictions

    Threaded Messages (28)

  2. Scott McNealy's 2004 Predictions[ Go to top ]

    1. Its not predictions. Its just general "common sense" talk. Everyone knows what he is talking baout.

    2. He said "Entire countries such as Belgium and Taiwan are using smart cards". Oh well - the size of these countries is much smaller than a country like say US. And so managing huge population is a big effort.

    3. Regarding N1 - SUN one or any other 1's and 2's sun has. They have tried their best to do it in the past also. It doesnt sell that well. Oracle CEO started his own company long back to compete with MSFT dominance - it failed. No one know when it will hit common market to be next big thing.

    4. This will be the first time Scott didnt crack a joke at MSFT. He is coming to his senses I guess.

    5. Regarding China adopting Java desk top. - In a country like china well known for best piracy in the world - How many of those desktop softwares are going to be legally bought is always a debatable issue.
    All the best anyway.
    Lets hope "SUNW" stock hits atleast $6.00 in coming year. :)
  3. Scott McNealy's 2004 Predictions[ Go to top ]

    Scott, you don't have relevance any more. Get used to it.
  4. are U kidding[ Go to top ]

    About piracy of china, I want to say something and yes I from china.
    First, your statement is not nicety.
    Second, you can not depict or define what is piracy and what is unadulterated piracy.
    Third, linux and java desktop system do not need piracyed.
    Fourthly, China pay much many money for US software, and these money is not worthy of these money value at all.
    Fifth, If no china, Software and WWW is just right a bubble yet, even there is no M$, IBM, Sun or linux's survival continuing.
    Finally, I do not want argue with you or talk about piracy, you and I, and We, all people of world just do one thing, making effor for developing of human.
  5. I seriously doubt that Govt of China will ever try to use pirated copy of this product. As far as general public is concerned they can download copy from vendor why they need to do piracy.
  6. Yes, no sense argument[ Go to top ]

    I just expatiate on fact, Goverment of china do not use piracy software at all, because they spend very much money on software from Oracle, M$, IBM, Sun, but much money just be thrown in water to waste. 99% people using piracy software is student, or people like student or like us, include you and me had not hunt much money.
    So, there are not damnification at all, in deed, as these people come on, they can make dicision for purchase somelike software in there company, i.e. these software piracy experience help improve vendor's sales ability.
    Everybody knows bill gates and oracle's cxo bum draw money plan from china, this china is just china goverment.
    That is it.
    About piracy expert, all shit, also bum, they do not know about us, these commoner and they just make none sense.
    Everybody should have a clear brain and heart, there are more than 80 percent commoner, inclue you and me.
  7. China is touted as having 95% piracy rate:

    http://www.computerworld.com/softwaretopics/os/linux/story/0,10801,82218,00.html

    With this interesting statement:

    "The Chinese government knows they need to crack down on the piracy issue, because their agenda is to create their own software to be exported. That's a bigger problem than my software being pirated -- they want to create intellectual property to compete with me, and they may be doing it in such a way that the market isn't as open as it should be. So the Chinese government has a vested interested to crack down on it, because they want to provide an environment in which their people can export software and compete with us in a knowledge-based economy."

    So it's OK for China to crack down on piracy when it suits their own purpose, but when it doesn't piracy is OK.

    I can appreciate the whole "new world order" and "common man" arguments here but the facts don't support the myth. In the end, it is money that drives economies and nations not flowery ideologies.

    This is the problem with McNealy. He mouths off about "potentially a half a billion" desktops using Java Desktop at $100/seat. Until piracy is reigned in, it equates closer to $0/seat.
  8. Piracy, Sun and other herbs[ Go to top ]

    About the whole thing about piracy and so, well just one thought
    "you have to deal with it".
    I will try to depict how it is down here in most parts of South America, it's insane. about 90% of the hardware market is ruled by small retailers who buy generic pieces from importers and assemble the PC to sell it, we call them "clones". Now that's ok, but when it comes to software, well almost always you get the default installation of the newest Windows with all the treats, Winzips, Winamps, Office and even AutoCAD 2004 if you ask for it, ok, how about licences? And not to mention the 3 GB of mp3s you get for free also...
    The problem is very complicated and endemic down here, you can go to a magazine kiosk and buy whatever program you need for $3, and of course the respective crack is bundled in the CD. Now, I think this situation happens in just the same way in a countries like China, and probably in Taiwan too. Please correct me if I'm wrong but I believe that the cause for this is both the prices and licensing schemes of the companies selling software and (sadly to say) actual legislation of these countries.
    Now with this in mind, the case of Sun. I thing that they will have to come up with some alternative licencing model if they want to get even closer to what M$ has done and now what Linux is doing. I would really love to see an improved and rock-hard Java Desktop System as the default installation of these "clones" I was telling you about some lines above, leaving aside the piracy issues, because this would catapult Sun, provide another choice to the customer and improve the general market. Now if it becomes easy to actually buy the licence and tech support for this OS, imagine...
    Let's face it, Sun has failed before but it's trying to get on the right trail again, just take a look at their new partnership with AMD to ship 64 bit Opteron processors in some of their new line of servers. They are desperatedly trying. Last Thrusday one of the bigger Sun retailers in my country offered us a show about their line of servers and networking solutions in my office for free, I thought well it's just propaganda but then I realized their actual situation. No wonder why they have their focus on Java developers now, lucky us (yeah right).
    By the way, there are proposals in contries like Brazil to standardize Linux as the government's desktop platform.
  9. yes, right[ Go to top ]

    yes, not only Brazil , govt of Isreal and some British Govt' departments have also shown keen interest in adopting linux Desktop. But still things are at very early stages. Next few years are going to be very very interesting... as far as this technological battle is concerned.
  10. Let's look at you, and me and the billions of other freaking people in the world. When you were little, if you can't get a copy of oracle for the price of 0.0000001% of the orriginal price - you would never had learned it, experiment with it, run your websphere with it.
    If you didn't learn it - why would you want to use it when you started working?

    If you don't use it - you won't recommend it - IT company won't buy it and Larry would be broke.

    Students use it for learning - they're NOT RUNNING A MULTI-MILLION company from it, dear. It's for the better for the future.

    As they start working, they'll work with companies and convince them to buy Oracle.
  11. <quote>About piracy of china, I want to say something and yes I from china.
    First, your statement is not nicety.
    Second, you can not depict or define what is piracy and what is unadulterated piracy.
    Third, linux and java desktop system do not need piracyed.
    Fourthly, China pay much many money for US software, and these money is not worthy of these money value at all.
    Fifth, If no china, Software and WWW is just right a bubble yet, even there is no M$, IBM, Sun or linux's survival continuing.
    Finally, I do not want argue with you or talk about piracy, you and I, and We, all people of world just do one thing, making effor for developing of human.
    </quote>

    ----

    I dont thing u made a single point about what i was talking about. And yes i had hard time reading. Lets just be real. We all know what kind of piracy happens there. One more fact - I went to CAPITAL of CHINA last month and I saw vcds, dvds, CDs of movies released recently, American TV shows and a hell lot of software sold for $1 each. Please just shut up when u say there is no piracy in china ( or even taiwan & hong cong ). Its called the world hub of piracy.

    About scott mcnealy's statement - Where in china can he sell 0.5 billion copies. I see only (control freak ) government of china using it legally-who else. And 0.5 billion is a large number - almost half of china's computer savy population.

    As usual Scott has made a big nonsense comment about a number.
  12. THAT'S NOT THE POINT[ Go to top ]

    <quote>About piracy of china, I want to say something and yes I from china.

    > First, your statement is not nicety.
    > Second, you can not depict or define what is piracy and what is unadulterated piracy.
    > Third, linux and java desktop system do not need piracyed.
    > Fourthly, China pay much many money for US software, and these money is not worthy of these money value at all.
    > Fifth, If no china, Software and WWW is just right a bubble yet, even there is no M$, IBM, Sun or linux's survival continuing.
    > Finally, I do not want argue with you or talk about piracy, you and I, and We, all people of world just do one thing, making effor for developing of human.
    > </quote>
    >
    > ----
    >
    > I dont thing u made a single point about what i was talking about. And yes i had hard time reading. Lets just be real. We all know what kind of piracy happens there. One more fact - I went to CAPITAL of CHINA last month and I saw vcds, dvds, CDs of movies released recently, American TV shows and a hell lot of software sold for $1 each. Please just shut up when u say there is no piracy in china ( or even taiwan & hong cong ). Its called the world hub of piracy.
    >
    Yes, let's just be real: US is facing economy problems after dot com barber, many companies are forced to look for new market oppurtities in countries LIKE CHINA and moving sw development offshore. So the problem here is not about how many copies are sold or can be sold or the price(since most the sw bundle can be downloaded free, I guess $100 per seat is about the add-on value: service),
    It's about the new market oppurnities, for a company like SUN now, it's very much needed.
    > About scott mcnealy's statement - Where in china can he sell 0.5 billion copies. I see only (control freak ) government of china using it legally-who else. And 0.5 billion is a large number - almost half of china's computer savy population.
    >
    > As usual Scott has made a big nonsense comment about a number.


    Software privacy is a problem shared by many developing countries, it hurts those countries'own software companies as much as those from US. I think this is a phase most developing countries have to pass before they can have a mature legal system and people have enough money that they don't need and put up all the hassles just to use those pirated software. It's just not a contructive discussion to pick on China for this problem in a new year forward looking thread like this.

    Peace and all the best.
  13. THAT'S NOT THE POINT[ Go to top ]

    I understand your opinion. If you read my first comment , I was just mentioning how the number half a billion and country name china was used by scott. so based on FACTS i commented that its a very big number and YEs its true china has software licensing issues - specially due to piracy. We all know it. But someone here has to be opposing the truth other wise a thread in
    TSS is not complete. So anyway. I strongly feel Scott has done 0 bit of research and is just making up numbers.
  14. YET IT IS THE POINT[ Go to top ]

    Yes, let's just be real: US is facing economy problems after dot com barber, many companies are forced to look for new market oppurtities in countries LIKE CHINA and moving sw development offshore.


    This is where piracy IS A BIG ISSUE. China and other offshore entities like India are pirating software and then competing in the US market as "low cost alternatives". These "struggling" US companies are sitting on wads of cash so let's not do the "free trade/cost cutting" mantra. As a small IT consultant, this hinders my abilities to compete because I DO have to purchase these licenses due to strict US legal requirements and it is reflected in my prices. Level the playing field. Force these other entities to purchase legitimate development tools and production software and allow a more fair competition.

    Secondly, since we are are being herded into the "new world order" camp, nations are supposed to abide by WTO rules, specifically TIPS which protects intellectual property. China, as an example, does not and is in direct violation because of fears it would stifle their economy. It would force them to make significant investments to honor license agreemtns. As a previous poster stated, "get used to it" and comply.

    If we idly sit by and allow IT to become a proposition of "dimishing returns", this industry will find itself as a commodity instead of a driving engine for the world economy. Engineers are the value proposition, not "Java Desktop",Java,etc... or anything MacNealy spews out of his mouth.
  15. how you lose your job[ Go to top ]

    As far as I know, many Chinese developers only use open source
    tools. Piracy happens mostly with Windows OS and office tools,
    and other end-user applications, but not development tools.
    The cost is cut on the salary, not on the licenses for tools.
    For development, who needs commercial tools really.

    You want to keep you job, I am afraid that you have to ask
    cutting your salary or move to China or India and work there.
    High-end life in America is justifed? no really.
  16. how you lose your job[ Go to top ]

    You want to keep you job, I am afraid that you have to ask

    > cutting your salary or move to China or India and work there.
    > High-end life in America is justifed? no really.

    Now that's a cheeky comment.
    Let me put it another way: there are some fund managers who are investing heavilly in the rust belt. Why? because the Baltic shipping(whatever that is) trippled in the last year. This means that you pay 27$ for a ton of iron ore and 27$ for shipping. The end result is that it is cheaper to manufacture commodities in US than in China. Makes you think, ain't it? You pay three times more for shipping ... no more paycheck advantages...
    Not to mention that open source started with tax money...
  17. how you lose your job[ Go to top ]

    As far as I know, many Chinese developers only use open source

    > tools. Piracy happens mostly with Windows OS and office tools,
    > and other end-user applications, but not development tools.
    > The cost is cut on the salary, not on the licenses for tools.
    > For development, who needs commercial tools really.
    >
    > You want to keep you job, I am afraid that you have to ask
    > cutting your salary or move to China or India and work there.
    > High-end life in America is justifed? no really.

    How about production? Or is China deploying JBoss/Jonas in production. Most large clients use either Websphere or Weblogic in their production. And although Weblogic gives "free" development licenses, you still have to pay to get Tier 1 support which is critical to a client. Plus, we should accept piracy in other applications?

    As far as "High-end life in America is justified? no really". You're entitled to free speech -- wait that's only in the West. If I could stop paying taxes and higher prices in the US to cover piracy and IMF funds to nations like China and India, then yes I could reduce my wage. China and India want open US markets but theirs are closed. We're all screwed when China finally plays by the rules and their currency comes to par with their hype. Worldwide hyperinflation. Get back to me when your wage doesnt meet YOUR requirements to live.

    I guess I can come back here and say "Highly skilled and educated in India and China. Not really". This offshore trend has little to do with wages, it has to do with tax evasion -- no or little healthcare, workman's compensation and social nets offshore. Plus MacNealy and gang have reduced everything to an "IT is an assembly line" mentality to justify their incompetence and lack of shareholder value.
  18. bottom line is the cost.[ Go to top ]

    How about production? Or is China deploying JBoss/Jonas in production. Most large clients use either Websphere or Weblogic in their production. And although Weblogic gives "free" development licenses, you still have to pay to get Tier 1 support which is critical to a client. Plus, we should accept piracy in other applications?



    Production runs in the US. You do not need them for development.
    And that comes with a tier one support.

    >
    > As far as "High-end life in America is justified? no really". You're entitled to free speech -- wait that's only in the West. If I could stop paying taxes and higher prices in the US to cover piracy and IMF funds to nations like China and India, then yes I could reduce my wage. China and India want open US markets but theirs are closed. We're all screwed when China finally plays by the rules and their currency comes to par with their hype. Worldwide hyperinflation. Get back to me when your wage doesnt meet YOUR requirements to live.


    > China and India want open US markets but theirs are closed.

    I do not think it is fair to say so. You can defnitely
    lobby your government to use WTO as a tool to get what you want.
    Also the hype of currency, its role is definitely hyped by American
    government.


    >
    > I guess I can come back here and say "Highly skilled and educated in India and China. Not really". This offshore trend has little to do with wages, it has to do with tax evasion -- no or little healthcare, workman's compensation and social nets offshore. Plus MacNealy and gang have reduced everything to an "IT is an assembly line" mentality to justify their incompetence and lack of shareholder value.


    You are right: they do not need to be highly skilled and educated
    since the work they are doing is mostly development.
    Also even they are highly skilled and educated, they are way cheaper.

    IN regard of tax evation, since it is allowed and done by American
    big businesses, what can I say? But I truely belive the bottom line
    is the cost. Developers in my hometown costs less than 5000$ annually.
    The difference is just too large for those money-hunger business owners
    to ignore. Even some software commpanies in Beijing do outsource
    development to my hometown or other "developing" provinces in China.

    In end, WTO is a tool and I think both China and American governments,
    and any other government involved with WTO, are trying to use it
    to change their positions in the economical tug war. How does well,
    we'll see. Currently, China is no more than a produciton site. It does
    not have big-brand names as American, even not comparable to India.
    So it is really not the most difficult time to cry and what China government
    or Chinese as whole gain is really minimal. Most profits go into
    the pockets of business owners that do the outsourcing.

    We as developers have to think where our values are and try to make
    not that easy to be replaceable. The pure coding work will mostly
    disappear as shoe-making jobs. It will take some time but it will come.
    So it might be a good idea to change to be a business analyst
    because their jobs won't be oursouced:)
  19. NO IT IS NOT THE POINT[ Go to top ]

    Yes, let's just be real: US is facing economy problems after dot com barber, many companies are forced to look for new market oppurtities in countries LIKE CHINA and moving sw development offshore.

    >
    > This is where piracy IS A BIG ISSUE. China and other offshore entities like India are pirating software and then competing in the US market as "low cost alternatives". These "struggling" US companies are sitting on wads of cash so let's not do the "free trade/cost cutting" mantra. As a small IT consultant, this hinders my abilities to compete because I DO have to purchase these licenses due to strict US legal requirements and it is reflected in my prices. Level the playing field. Force these other entities to purchase legitimate development tools and production software and allow a more fair competition.

    That's just plainly wrong: I just don't see many "...are pirating software and then competing in the US market as "low cost alternatives" in China, I just see many US sw companies are competing in China markets or realizing the cheap labors(sw engineers are no exception). Either because China does not right now have a single sw company that has the right products to compete in the west markets, or instead of crossing the culture gap and dealing with those westers, they are more likely to choose their neighbours like Singapore. So I guess you do not have an imported problem of "low cost alternatives", what you have now is the exported problem:the real danger of losing jobs offshore.
    >
    > Secondly, since we are are being herded into the "new world order" camp, nations are supposed to abide by WTO rules, specifically TIPS which protects intellectual property. China, as an example, does not and is in direct violation because of fears it would stifle their economy. It would force them to make significant investments to honor license agreemtns. As a previous poster stated, "get used to it" and comply.

    Wrong again. The software piracy problem is mostly in consumer markets, e.g, dvd movies, computer games, this is the place where it's very hard to enforce licensing rules, just like any other countries, including US. Believe it or not, many those pirated software or cracks are even from US. For commercial entites, very few are using pirated software as far as I know. Because those software sold in enterprise are expensive and China does have a law about intellectual property rights and those US(or other) vendors are not dumb and there have been history law suites of IP rights(read recent Toyota law suit filed agaist a China domestic car maker of violating their IP rights). Yes, what I'm saying here is those IP laws in China are enforceable, and I see many chinese companies and governments are real buying customers of those huge $ software, even someof them are shitty like M$, DB2. "China, as an example, does not and is in direct violation because of fears it would stifle their economy" is plain nonsense at most: every ones knows piracy does no good to any economy. One more thing, I think it's not the China government who should make significant investments to honor license agreements, it should be the individuel companies. On this side we have already seen many "courageous" companies like SCO in facing of stiffering competitions is filing rediculous IP claims agaist IBM in desprate...
     
    > If we idly sit by and allow IT to become a proposition of "dimishing returns", this industry will find itself as a commodity instead of a driving engine for the world economy. Engineers are the value proposition, not "Java Desktop",Java,etc... or anything MacNealy spews out of his mouth.

    Peace and all the best.
  20. NO IT IS NOT THE POINT[ Go to top ]


    > That's just plainly wrong: I just don't see many "...are pirating software and then competing in the US market as "low cost alternatives" in China, I just see many US sw companies are competing in China markets or realizing the cheap labors(sw engineers are no exception). Either because China does not right now have a single sw company that has the right products to compete in the west markets, or instead of crossing the culture gap and dealing with those westers, they are more likely to choose their neighbours like Singapore.

    If companies in the US are offshoring to China, then yes China is competing in the US market especially in the services industry. As far as "cheap labor", how are Chinese engineers affording the same products from US corporations since they make so much less. Cost-slashing is just a nice term for Deflation which is not good for anyone. It is a lose-lose for US companies like SUNW since they either (1) drastically reduce their product prices to meet new consumer/commercial markets = revenue implosion or (2) drastically lose share price to reflect the price deflation issues. Again, the only winners are the International Bankers and Free Traders. A better alternative would be to force a massive uplift of wages for Chinese and Indian highly-skilled workers to provide a more level "Free Trade" playing field. What's wrong with that?

    > >
    > > Secondly, since we are are being herded into the "new world order" camp, nations are supposed to abide by WTO rules, specifically TIPS which protects intellectual property. China, as an example, does not and is in direct violation because of fears it would stifle their economy. It would force them to make significant investments to honor license agreemtns. As a previous poster stated, "get used to it" and comply.
    >
    > Wrong again. The software piracy problem is mostly in consumer markets, e.g, dvd movies, computer games, this is the place where it's very hard to enforce licensing rules, just like any other countries, including US. Believe it or not, many those pirated software or cracks are even from US. For commercial entites, very few are using pirated software as far as I know.

    Please read the previous link from Sybase CEO. Sybase has limited consumer presence so he is talking about commerical markets. Sysbase is willing to gamble on 95% piracy hoping that eventually things will turn around. Also, what about the recent Cisco vs. Huwai Intellectual property case where the Chinese gov't backed corporation was accused of stealing Cisco's IPv6 software(it's since been settled with terms unspecified, how convenient) because of the need to build out China's infrastructure. Please don't say the Chinese gov't isn't part of the piracy problem. I don't want to applaud them for trying to enforce laws after they've been caught.

    As far as WTO/TIPS statement goes -- sorry, you are wrong. It is the responsibility of the signatories of the WTO agreement to provide legal, legislative and concrete enforcement standards to protect intellectual property in their nations --not the corporations. This was one of the reasons that the last round of talks at Cancun failed. Countries, ie. India and China, were not living up to their commitments to the treaty.
  21. NO IT IS NOT THE POINT[ Go to top ]


    > > That's just plainly wrong: I just don't see many "...are pirating software and then competing in the US market as "low cost alternatives" in China, I just see many US sw companies are competing in China markets or realizing the cheap labors(sw engineers are no exception). Either because China does not right now have a single sw company that has the right products to compete in the west markets, or instead of crossing the culture gap and dealing with those westers, they are more likely to choose their neighbours like Singapore.
    >
    > If companies in the US are offshoring to China, then yes China is competing in the US market especially in the services industry. As far as "cheap labor", how are Chinese engineers affording the same products from US corporations since they make so much less. Cost-slashing is just a nice term for Deflation which is not good for anyone. It is a lose-lose for US companies like SUNW since they either (1) drastically reduce their product prices to meet new consumer/commercial markets = revenue implosion or (2) drastically lose share price to reflect the price deflation issues. Again, the only winners are the International Bankers and Free Traders. A better alternative would be to force a massive uplift of wages for Chinese and Indian highly-skilled workers to provide a more level "Free Trade" playing field. What's wrong with that?
    >

    What I'm arguing here is piracy IS NOT A BIG ISSUE, because the pirated(means low cost or zero cost)software will seldom be sold back in US markets, so the only arguments you can make here is the (presumed)pirated software(dev tools and office productivity tools)used in offshore companies. Even priacy is assumed here, those software contributes too little to the cost of the products or service that will be sold back in US to be meaningful. And believe me, many times offshore companies here in China has to be decent enough that they can afford those tools before they can make a deal with US companies. So the real arguments here is the cost of the developers, which relies on the cost of food and so on and finally the cost of living standard here. I guess we can not just "force a massive uplift of wages for Chinese and Indian highly-skilled workers to provide a more level "Free Trade" playing field" for ya, because it does not make any sense in the spirit of "Free Market", which I believe you know better than me.

    As far as the "Deflation" talk goes, which I think is much less related to PIRACY we are talking about here, RMB Deflation is a tough issue, because at one hand those ever growing foreign investments in China keep driving the pressure to deflat RMB, at the other hand China governments have to keep fueling the domestic spending to drive the overall economy growing forward, which means to inflat RMB. The fixed exchange rate policy of RMB is also a problem. There are no easy answers for those problems, I think it's better left for those experts to solve.

    > > >
    > > > Secondly, since we are are being herded into the "new world order" camp, nations are supposed to abide by WTO rules, specifically TIPS which protects intellectual property. China, as an example, does not and is in direct violation because of fears it would stifle their economy. It would force them to make significant investments to honor license agreemtns. As a previous poster stated, "get used to it" and comply.
    > >
    > > Wrong again. The software piracy problem is mostly in consumer markets, e.g, dvd movies, computer games, this is the place where it's very hard to enforce licensing rules, just like any other countries, including US. Believe it or not, many those pirated software or cracks are even from US. For commercial entites, very few are using pirated software as far as I know.
    >
    > Please read the previous link from Sybase CEO. Sybase has limited consumer presence so he is talking about commerical markets. Sysbase is willing to gamble on 95% piracy hoping that eventually things will turn around. Also, what about the recent Cisco vs. Huwai Intellectual property case where the Chinese gov't backed corporation was accused of stealing Cisco's IPv6 software(it's since been settled with terms unspecified, how convenient) because of the need to build out China's infrastructure. Please don't say the Chinese gov't isn't part of the piracy problem. I don't want to applaud them for trying to enforce laws after they've been caught.

    What I'm arguing here is not that there are NO piracy in commercial space, what I'm saying is that most piracy are in consumer product space, and in commercial space you can fight for your IP rights and in consumer product space many companies choose not to fight because of the cost. As regard to the gov't role in those lawsuits, I think it's reasonable that gov't protect their own companies as long as it's in the limit of law, just like the recent alleged Changhong et al of selling home appliance(mainly TV sets)in US at a price of lower than costs lawsuits. As what is the limit, it's any ones guess, because there are so many things, like costs, are evaluated in different ways. And above all, have you ever seen a gov't that won't try to establish various kinds of barrier in their home markets and leave their domestic companies unprotected? I see NONE.

    >
    > As far as WTO/TIPS statement goes -- sorry, you are wrong. It is the responsibility of the signatories of the WTO agreement to provide legal, legislative and concrete enforcement standards to protect intellectual property in their nations --not the corporations. This was one of the reasons that the last round of talks at Cancun failed. Countries, ie. India and China, were not living up to their commitments to the treaty.

    Agreed here, but only the responsibilies of gov't of establishing the laws and enforcement standards. Here I'm all for a level playing field for companies regardless domestic or oversea. But it's up to the individual companies to USE THEM TO FIGHT FOR their IP rights. That's what I'm talking about. Wether China lives up to it's commitments or not, I think they are trying, or they will be forced to. How far the openess can go, we'll see, 2006 is only less 2 years away any way.
  22. NO IT IS NOT THE POINT[ Go to top ]


    > > > That's just plainly wrong: I just don't see many "...are pirating software and then competing in the US market as "low cost alternatives" in China, I just see many US sw companies are competing in China markets or realizing the cheap labors(sw engineers are no exception). Either because China does not right now have a single sw company that has the right products to compete in the west markets, or instead of crossing the culture gap and dealing with those westers, they are more likely to choose their neighbours like Singapore.
    > >
    > > If companies in the US are offshoring to China, then yes China is competing in the US market especially in the services industry. As far as "cheap labor", how are Chinese engineers affording the same products from US corporations since they make so much less. Cost-slashing is just a nice term for Deflation which is not good for anyone. It is a lose-lose for US companies like SUNW since they either (1) drastically reduce their product prices to meet new consumer/commercial markets = revenue implosion or (2) drastically lose share price to reflect the price deflation issues. Again, the only winners are the International Bankers and Free Traders. A better alternative would be to force a massive uplift of wages for Chinese and Indian highly-skilled workers to provide a more level "Free Trade" playing field. What's wrong with that?
    > >
    >
    > What I'm arguing here is piracy IS NOT A BIG ISSUE, because the pirated(means low cost or zero cost)software will seldom be sold back in US markets, so the only arguments you can make here is the (presumed)pirated software(dev tools and office productivity tools)used in offshore companies. Even priacy is assumed here, those software contributes too little to the cost of the products or service that will be sold back in US to be meaningful. And believe me, many times offshore companies here in China has to be decent enough that they can afford those tools before they can make a deal with US companies. So the real arguments here is the cost of the developers, which relies on the cost of food and so on and finally the cost of living standard here. I guess we can not just "force a massive uplift of wages for Chinese and Indian highly-skilled workers to provide a more level "Free Trade" playing field" for ya, because it does not make any sense in the spirit of "Free Market", which I believe you know better than me.
    >
    > As far as the "Deflation" talk goes, which I think is much less related to PIRACY we are talking about here, RMB Deflation is a tough issue, because at one hand those ever growing foreign investments in China keep driving the pressure to deflat RMB, at the other hand China governments have to keep fueling the domestic spending to drive the overall economy growing forward, which means to inflat RMB. The fixed exchange rate policy of RMB is also a problem. There are no easy answers for those problems, I think it's better left for those experts to solve.
    >
    > > > >
    > > > > Secondly, since we are are being herded into the "new world order" camp, nations are supposed to abide by WTO rules, specifically TIPS which protects intellectual property. China, as an example, does not and is in direct violation because of fears it would stifle their economy. It would force them to make significant investments to honor license agreemtns. As a previous poster stated, "get used to it" and comply.
    > > >
    > > > Wrong again. The software piracy problem is mostly in consumer markets, e.g, dvd movies, computer games, this is the place where it's very hard to enforce licensing rules, just like any other countries, including US. Believe it or not, many those pirated software or cracks are even from US. For commercial entites, very few are using pirated software as far as I know.
    > >
    > > Please read the previous link from Sybase CEO. Sybase has limited consumer presence so he is talking about commerical markets. Sysbase is willing to gamble on 95% piracy hoping that eventually things will turn around. Also, what about the recent Cisco vs. Huwai Intellectual property case where the Chinese gov't backed corporation was accused of stealing Cisco's IPv6 software(it's since been settled with terms unspecified, how convenient) because of the need to build out China's infrastructure. Please don't say the Chinese gov't isn't part of the piracy problem. I don't want to applaud them for trying to enforce laws after they've been caught.
    >
    > What I'm arguing here is not that there are NO piracy in commercial space, what I'm saying is that most piracy are in consumer product space, and in commercial space you can fight for your IP rights and in consumer product space many companies choose not to fight because of the cost. As regard to the gov't role in those lawsuits, I think it's reasonable that gov't protect their own companies as long as it's in the limit of law, just like the recent alleged Changhong et al of selling home appliance(mainly TV sets)in US at a price of lower than costs lawsuits. As what is the limit, it's any ones guess, because there are so many things, like costs, are evaluated in different ways. And above all, have you ever seen a gov't that won't try to establish various kinds of barrier in their home markets and leave their domestic companies unprotected? I see NONE.
    >
    > >
    > > As far as WTO/TIPS statement goes -- sorry, you are wrong. It is the responsibility of the signatories of the WTO agreement to provide legal, legislative and concrete enforcement standards to protect intellectual property in their nations --not the corporations. This was one of the reasons that the last round of talks at Cancun failed. Countries, ie. India and China, were not living up to their commitments to the treaty.
    >
    > Agreed here, but only the responsibilies of gov't of establishing the laws and enforcement standards. Here I'm all for a level playing field for companies regardless domestic or oversea. But it's up to the individual companies to USE THEM TO FIGHT FOR their IP rights. That's what I'm talking about. Wether China lives up to it's commitments or not, I think they are trying, or they will be forced to. How far the openess can go, we'll see, 2006 is only less 2 years away any way.


    ------------------------
    I dont see any particular point in what you are talking. Spinning the same wheel again and again. What the hell are you trying to say ? ( dont write a confusing, meaningless essay.
  23. NO IT IS NOT THE POINT[ Go to top ]

    OK Sean, here's a summary. Sorry for the political debate drift.

    Mr. MacNealy is saying China is the great new gold rush with "a half a billion desktops". I'm saying that with piracy -- sparked by your thread :) , .5Billion desktops x 0$/desktops is not a reason SUNW should be bought. Also with piracy, there is a circular backlash in US markets since offshore candidates that are pirating are reselling services back in the USA which further erodes any of SUNW position as a company as far as their professional services are concerned. Also, Scott complains of overpriced IT integrators. J2EE is an expensive integration platform which will loose market power in a deflationary cost-cutting environment. Plus, I don't see a lot of "packaged apps" coming from Sun. MacNealy is spewing pablum without disclosing the overall picture. Where's the revenue stream coming from?

    All I hear is "cheaper offshore labor" and cost-cutting as the only argument for the future of IT. There are other issues than just cost-cutting to a company like Sun's bottom line. Intellectual property being a big component. In the end, in the information age, intellectual property is currency and piracy is going to affect the industry and companies like SUNW and eventually developers like those in this forum.
  24. NO IT IS NOT THE POINT[ Go to top ]

    All I hear is "cheaper offshore labor" and cost-cutting as the only argument for the future of IT. There are other issues than just cost-cutting to a company like Sun's bottom line. Intellectual property being a big component. In the end, in the information age, intellectual property is currency and piracy is going to affect the industry and companies like SUNW and eventually developers like those in this forum.

    -------------------------

    Frank,

    You're totally right. What many people don't want to understand is that offshoring is not an economic but a political decision(they invoke "free trade" and "free market", at best confusing them with savage capitalism, Enron style). And like all political decisions obliterating economic ones, they tend to fail miserably.
    I also think that it is a "political debate drift", but somehow it is forced on us.
  25. it is economic as well as political.[ Go to top ]

    All I hear is "cheaper offshore labor" and cost-cutting as the only argument for the future of IT. There are other issues than just cost-cutting to a company like Sun's bottom line. Intellectual property being a big component. In the end, in the information age, intellectual property is currency and piracy is going to affect the industry and companies like SUNW and eventually developers like those in this forum.

    > -------------------------

    For the piracy, the software vendors won't get the money they deserve,
    that is for sure and this is not right. But I would not see how much
    your jobs in US are affected by the illegally used software used in China.
    Instead, Chinese IT industry is the one that is seriously impacted
    by piracy because nobody can offord to invest software product development while "free" software is flowing around. It is the China local IT
    professionals jobs are seriously damaged.

    About the WTO, thousands of Chinese workers were laid of because of
    competetions from foreigh companies. Many domestic companies are bankrupt
    simplely because their old technologies and equipments are no match to
    the new comers. These people all suffer at the same time.

    Many people call our former Primier Zhou's name when he came
    back from States because they believed Mr. Zhou concede too much
    and Chinese domestic companies do not have enough time to compete
    with western companies once WTO takes effect. My hometown, ShenYang,
    in Laining province, has been the biggest heavy industry center in China,
    has got a new name "vacation villiage". The reason is that there are
    some many people being laid off the city gives an impression
    of having many tourists walking around.

    >
    > Frank,
    >
    > You're totally right. What many people don't want to understand is that offshoring is not an economic but a political decision(they invoke "free trade" and "free market", at best confusing them with savage capitalism, Enron style). And like all political decisions obliterating economic ones, they tend to fail miserably.
    > I also think that it is a "political debate drift", but somehow it is forced on us.

    If you see the amount of money India IT earns every year, you will understand
    it is economic.

    And the point is, your competetors are not other people but developers.
    If developers in India who can be paid cheapter but do the same job
    then your work can be replaced, as simple as that. There are surely other factors that affect our jobs eventually, but this is real and has the most
    direct impact.
  26. NO IT IS NOT THE POINT[ Go to top ]

    FYI. I'd be interested on your comments on these issues or is it OK for China to protect their interests but US concerns cannot.

    http://www.nytimes.com/2004/01/13/technology/13china.html?ex=1074661200
  27. for the piracy issue in China, you can not speak that way.
    every country counts this issue, but not all the people do like that.
    so i throw doubts on your judgement to the whole country of China, it's not fair, at least i think.
  28. I'm really very sorry[ Go to top ]

    the opinion on piracy issue in China was not posted by Scott McNealy.
    I'm really very sorry for my careless.
    > for the piracy issue in China, you can not speak that way.
    > every country counts this issue, but not all the people do like that.
    > so i throw doubts on your judgement to the whole country of China, it's not fair, at least i think.
  29. Look at the predictions this guy made 5 years ago....

    That will tell everything you need to know.