Don Box's Yet Another 2005 Prediction List

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News: Don Box's Yet Another 2005 Prediction List

  1. Don Box's Yet Another 2005 Prediction List (39 messages)

    Don Box has announced his predictions for 2005. They include Sun embracing Eclipse, BEA not being sold, SOA being beaten to death more, XML Query / Semantic Web / WS-* still holding promise, and more. What are your predictions for 2005?

    • Firefox's browser share will be surpassed by new non-MSFT HTML browser for Windows.
    • Sun Microsystems will embrace Eclipse.
    • The term SOA will have been beaten to death and the software industry will invent or recycle some equally vague term to replace it.
    • Intel and/or AMD will find a way to market (if not actually build) a 6Ghz CPU.
    • BEA won't change hands.
    • Despite some interesting and useful new technologies being announced, PDC 2005 will be seen as a let down.
    • Miguel de Icaza will leave Novell and join Google.
    • Mac OS X Media Center Edition.
    • XML Query, the Semantic Web, and WS-* will continue to hold promise.
    • Scoble will make the cover of a major national news magazine.

    Yet Another 2005 Prediction List

    Threaded Messages (39)

  2. M$ written all over the predictions[ Go to top ]

    **Almost** Every prediction seem to be favouring Microsoft on long term :-)
  3. easy prediction[ Go to top ]

    I predict that the Java and J2EE developers will be even more surly and grumpy under 2005 that they have been in 2004.

    Happy New Year!
    Rolf Tollerud
  4. But there's a cure[ Go to top ]

    If everyone just smokes from the .NET pipe, than everyone will be happy. though afterwards, you might be hungry for some munchies.
  5. easy prediction[ Go to top ]

    I predict that the Java and J2EE developers will be even more surly and grumpy under 2005 that they have been in 2004.

    Bah, humbug!

    I predict that Rolf won't go away in 2005.

    And I predict that while TSS posts articles from Don Box, MSDN will not post articles from Richard Stallman.

    Peace,

    Cameron Purdy
    Tangosol, Inc.
    Coherence: Shared Memories for J2EE Clusters
  6. M$ written all over the predictions[ Go to top ]

    **Almost** Every prediction seem to be favouring Microsoft on long term :-)

    Remember back in the late 80:ies when everybody said "noone ever got fired for buying IBM"? :)
    Not saying Microsoft is up for a fall, but there is a zenith for everything, the question is only will it last for 2 years, 20 years or?..
  7. Germino[ Go to top ]

    i liking this, my predickstion is germino becoming producktion server and beng used by the many fortune500 company, you agreeing ?
  8. might as well hop on the bandwagon[ Go to top ]

    not that I believe my own predictions, but I figure my predictions are just as worthless as the next guys.

    1. sales guys will keep hyping stuff they don't understand and over sell a product.

    2. bad managers will continue to buy bad products after being smoozed by the sales guy

    3. developers will have to continue to put up with bad managers making bad decisions for eternity

    4. microsoft will one day go away like all companies

    5. all predictions will be useless, but the lucky bastard who happens to have gotten lucky will claim to be better than everyone else

    Until then, I'll take predictions as silly jokes that are meant to provide some entertainment.
  9. might as well hop on the bandwagon[ Go to top ]

    5. all predictions will be useless, but the lucky bastard who happens to have gotten lucky will claim to be better than everyone elseUntil then, I'll take predictions as silly jokes that are meant to provide some entertainment.

    Peter my friend you should be a philospher instead of a programmer:-) Seems like a pun but very true..

    Yes all the predictions can easily be a wish list for MS camp. Specially they are really paranoid of firefox popularity.

    But any way the technical merit of these predictions are as shallow as most of the paid gurus in our industry...
  10. might as well hop on the bandwagon[ Go to top ]

    One More ...

    One day MS will buy TSS

    Keep on laughing guys :)
  11. CPU's 6Ghz..[ Go to top ]

    i am shocked that this guy has no knowledge of CPU's nowadays. Almost all the predictions are just "MS wishlist".. what a load of *rap.
  12. maybe new math[ Go to top ]

    Perhaps Don is using some kind of new math, like adding the numbers of a dual core to get 6ghz. After all, a dual core 3ghz CPU should be faster than a single core 6ghz. I'll stop be sarcastic now.
  13. My prediction for 2005 is ...[ Go to top ]

    My prediction is that it'll NEVER snow in Summer 2005 :)
  14. RiA-SoA[ Go to top ]

    I predict that RiA will take over for new application development for Java: like JDNC, Flex, Laszlo, Avalon. I predict that there will be a lot of demand for RiA experienced developers and not enough supply.
    (and that instead of apps runing in a browser, browsers will run inside the apps).

    And that apps that do not migrate to RiA will migrate to PHP.

    IBM buys Apple!
    And that Austin Powers will get un-frozen. Yeah, Baby!

    .V
    sandraSF.com
    boardVU.com
  15. My Predictions[ Go to top ]

    * Java Server Faces will become mainstream in enterprise projects replacing struts in new project Q4-05
    * Java Data Object/ Hibernate will have increased usage in enterprise projects replacing EJB BMP/CMP/ Straight JDBC
    * Java 5 will not be accepted for enterprise development usage in 05
    * The first major Java virus for mobile devices will spawn...
    * Enterprises will wise up to expensive per CPU cost of application servers, Sun Application Server will gain in market share to the detriment of Websphere and Weblogic.
    * Studies showing the the cost of ownership/development between .NET and J2EE will show slanted views depending on the sponsor of the Study.
    * CSS/XHTML layouts instead of HTML+Tables will become the new must have of new web developments (Saving bandwidth & Gaining accessibility compliance)
    * Java will not be opensourced due to the danger of forking
    * Apache geronimo will make J2EE 1.4 complaint and an Oreilly book will be published covering it.
    * Model driven development gain mind share and become mainstream as tool mature

    Happy New Year to the J2EE community. It's going to be a fun new year.

    Graham Cruickshanks
  16. My Predictions[ Go to top ]

    I can imagine all of your predections coming true. All but the last one. MDA will never catch on because it is not based on a sound foundation. The UML standard is a heap of verbal vagueries not a formal language specification. Therefore all transformations used by MDA tools will always include a huge amount of vendor specific heuristics. As a result, each MDA tool, will in effect constitute its own proprietary language. Not many people will fall into that trap.
  17. Please take a look at OCL. UML + OCL will bring the real MDA. There was machine code, assembler, structured programming, OOP, AOP, AOP of course was a step towards combining declarative and imperative programming languages but somehow. And MDA is the next step that will combine the declarative and imperative approaches from the very beginning of a development project.

    Happy New Year :)
  18. Please take a look at OCL. UML + OCL will bring the real MDA. There was machine code, assembler, structured programming, OOP, AOP, AOP of course was a step towards combining declarative and imperative programming languages but somehow. And MDA is the next step that will combine the declarative and imperative approaches from the very beginning of a development project.Happy New Year :)

    We've had expression- and constraint languages for decades as well as all kinds of generators. I don't think there is much future in formally expressing constraints about something that itself has no formal semantics. I have been using the UML and various UML tools for years (and now UML 2.0) and I tell you it is a communication tool, not a programming language. There are just too many ambiguities in the spec and that's not by accident but by design, so it will probably never change. Each MDA vendor will have to invent their own formal semantics. And mind you that this is unlike the relational model and unlike something like RDF/OWL or various rule based systems, so it's not that there aren't any alternatives to the UML kludge.
  19. I have been using the UML and various UML tools for years (and now UML 2.0) and I tell you it is a communication tool, not a programming language.

    Indeed, there's no MDA PetStore to prove that UML is operational. This void undermines the viability of MDA as a replacement for handcoded algorithms. A big disappointment is OMG's years-old request for an action semantics specification for UML-2. UML-2 is languishing unfinalized and lacking even a placeholder for action semantics. I believe that model execution is the future, but I suspect that OMG won't get us there.
  20. Intel and/or AMD will find a way to market (if not actually build) a 6Ghz CPU.
    Everyone knows that it takes 18 months to double CPU speed. And we've just barely hit 3Ghz, so 6Ghz won't be available until summer 2006.

    8-]
  21. But then[ Go to top ]

    Everyone knows that it takes 18 months to double CPU speed. And we've just barely hit 3Ghz, so 6Ghz won't be available until summer 2006.8-]
    Longhorn is going to take even longer, but the hype machine's out in force.
  22. nope.. no 6Ghz even in 2006[ Go to top ]

    i believe current transistor material technology is reached to its "power versus clock speed" limit for intel. intel, stupidly pushed a very bad cpu desgn (P4) with the promise of "10Ghz" but this year they hit to the rock badly by reaching ridiculous 100-120Watts of power consumption . Going to 90nm did not help it either (Strangely it hepled AMD because they use a different process technology). Ofcourse, relating performance with clock speed myth alread busted by AMD. So now fashion is multi core processors. therefore i can predict that there will not be even a 4Ghz processor in 2005, probably not in 2006 either. if material technology is updated, maybe later on companies goes for mhz maddness again.
  23. I think most readers know already[ Go to top ]

    I read 6ghz prediction as a joke from Don. I'm sure he realizes Intel and AMD are abandoning the "crank the ghz up to 8" approach. It would be hard for Don to miss all the news article about multi-core CPU's. I really doubt Intel would make a 180 degree turn at this point and go for the ghz race again. IBM and Sun were already focused on multi-core approach over the last 2 years, so Intel was the last one to change.
  24. Who is Don Box and why should I care?[ Go to top ]

    For those of us who don't pay any attention to the "blogosphere". Why does his opinion have any weight, when his predictions seem to be a load of nonsense, and the commenters to his blog the usual sort of folk full of self-congratulation and wide, bright eyes at the latest shiny baubles? I mean why would anyone think that Sun would join the eclipse effort, when eclipse doesn't even come with support for JSP it seems that netbeans is very far ahead in almost every way, compared to the shortfalls of eclipse. Why would anyone think that CPUs will go to 6GHz?? And what about the "google browser" hints? That's always a sure sign you are in the blogosphere, the unhealthy obsession with google - and predictions of a google browser. Other signs involve an unhealthy obsession with XML, rss, other bloggers (who is spogle? or whatever his name was), anything wireless, and - java-specific - open source Java, eclipse, groovy, all manner of frameworks - and of course .net. Nothing real or concrete or worthwhile to be found anywhere, that's for sure, perhaps this area where reality has been distorted out of existence should stay off of TSS?

    Or perhaps TSS itself is becoming part of this misinformed territory, that must explain why the amount of times I visit it or treat it as a serious news source has been decreasing preciptously. Sigh.
  25. Who is Don Box and why should I care?[ Go to top ]

    Why does his opinion have any weight, when his predictions seem to be a load of nonsense...

    errr, what about because he is one of the fathers of SOAP, XML Schema, DCOM and a bunch of other "unknown" technologies...
  26. Physical products are built from distinct materials with distinct skills and processes. This led to vertically integrated companies organized around the distinct requirements of their physical product. They focus on, say, steel and ignore everything unlike steel. The result was steel companies that operate very differently than plastics companies. But in software it’s natural to treat different things in the same way. In software, most of what you do with, say, steel you could and should do with many other products. Things like customers, orders, payment, inventory, etc. are so similar across products software should naturally provide cross-functional services. Unfortunately, hand coded software is too low level to handle the scope of enterprise wide services at a cost small and medium sized companies can afford. Large companies can spend the time and money to hand code enterprise wide services but these costly projects often fail and when they don’t the result is a brittle white elephant.

    Companies are beginning to realize they need a 360 degree view of their customers and supply chain. In 2005 they will begin to realize it’s not practical to achieve this by hand coding everything and they will start looking for a higher level of abstraction. Previous attempts at enterprise wide software such as ERP and CORBA relied on hand coding everything and were too costly. MDA hasn’t caught on thanks to disappointing implementations from Rational and Compuware but open source MDA implementations will be released in 2005 and they will give MDA a second chance.
  27. another option[ Go to top ]

    Couldn't the business simply ask customers to spin around once, so the employees can get a good 360 degree view. that way, the customers get 30 seconds of physical exertion and the employees get a good view. that way, programmers can keep doing the same thing, which should be "ignore the boss". just kidding.
  28. Don Box can Predict The Future...[ Go to top ]

    From Don Box and Chris Sell's Effective COM:

    Learn Java

       Java may be the future of COM. Future COM+ features are likely to be highly inspired by various Java-isms. In particular, look at Java reflection and curse the Visual Basic team for the abomination that is IDispatch.

    Effective COM 50 Ways to Improve your COM and MTS-based Applications Addison Wesley, 1999


    A few of my own predictions:

    #1: I predict that Don Box will write a book entitled "Effective .Net: 50 Ways to Improve your .Net Applications (by Porting Open Source Java Libraries to the CLR)"

    #2: The final tip will be something like:

    Learn NHibernate

    ORM frameworks are like the Vietnam. By the time it stabilizes, we'll have released the new and improved MSHibernate, which is less likely to confuse developers, because it is endorsed by the proper authorities. Anyway, ORM strategies are all drivel dating back to the 1960's, but some drivel might prove to be useful in the near future.


    #3: IE will be really, really good next year.
    #4: NT will be re-written entirely in XAML.
    #5: ASP.NET XVII will be the greatest web platform ever!
    #6: Don Box will continue to bash the VB team for IDispatch.
  29. Some Honest Opinions[ Go to top ]

    I think the software industry is profoundly confused. Software vendors keep pushing new technologies that do nothing new for their corporate customers. Businesses, big and small, are tired of hearing new buzz words coming out of the IT community every other day. That's why corporate America is not spending much more on technology anymore, not until vendors can show them software with some tangible benefits and a price tag that won't bust their annual budgets. Software developers really have to wake up and realize what the business world wants instead of following the drum beat of Sun and MS like zombies. My prediction for 2005 is that American businesses will continue to ship more IT jobs to India because it's cheaper to get nothing new from overseas than it is from American developers. Remember, only the customers can decide what are true innovations and what are hypes. But the software community will spend another year chasing new buzz words anyway.
  30. RE: Some Honest Opinions[ Go to top ]

    You nailed it!
    For some reason the IT/Software world thinks that if they create some new technology or acronim, it will make the business world become more interested in it and buy it.
    They need to wake up and develop software that has long term value/returns for their customers.
  31. Some Honest Opinions[ Go to top ]

    Well spoken.

    Except for one thing. They're not confused. They've been doing this for years. Throw a bunch of things and the dartboard and see what sticks.

    That's why I always say, become familiar with everything you can, but don't become an expert until you know it's going to hit.

    For example, everyone pines on about Hibernate this and that. Yet, I know of one group in my organization who is looking at JDO because it's part of JCP. Because they know it will have backing of the companies. And that is a much easier sell to your corporate heads, and your sales team who's going to try to sell your product, than an open source solution.

    They're making the assumption that JDO will stick because of JCP.

    So far as India goes, that process is easier said than done. And companies are very reluctant to outsource business critical systems.

    So my prediction/advice for 2005 is either: Learn how to manage offshore development efforts, or get on business critical systems for work because of the stability factor.
  32. Some Honest Opinions[ Go to top ]

    Yet, I know of one group in my organization who is looking at JDO because it's part of JCP. Because they know it will have backing of the companies. And that is a much easier sell to your corporate heads, and your sales team who's going to try to sell your product, than an open source solution.

    Just a point of information. There is no conflict between JDO and open source - there are high-quality open source implementations of JDO, and the reference implementation of JDO 2.0 will be open source. JDO has more backing than just commercial companies.
  33. Some Honest Opinions[ Go to top ]

    Yet, I know of one group in my organization who is looking at JDO because it's part of JCP. Because they know it will have backing of the companies. And that is a much easier sell to your corporate heads, and your sales team who's going to try to sell your product, than an open source solution.
    Just a point of information. There is no conflict between JDO and open source - there are high-quality open source implementations of JDO, and the reference implementation of JDO 2.0 will be open source. JDO has more backing than just commercial companies.

    OK, let me clarify.

    They are not choosing Hibernate because it is not backed by the JCP. It's not even on the radar.
  34. Some Honest Opinions[ Go to top ]

    They are not choosing Hibernate because it is not backed by the JCP. It's not even on the radar.

    An interesting and, in my opinion, understandable point of view. Personally, I'm not too worried about whether or not something is backed by the JCP - it's the matter of having just one supplier for a major part of my application that would concern me, no matter how high the quality of the product.
  35. Some Honest Opinions[ Go to top ]

    Hibernate is not part of JCP but we can see how the open source community such as Hibernate, JBoss (which is using Hibernate) and XDoclet have influenced the JCP. Just take a look at EJB 3.0! JBoss for instance is using Hibernate as the persistence framework and EJB 3.0 as a JCP approved "wrapper", very smart decoupling. Frameworks like Spring have also an excellent approach.

    I will then forsee that the Open Source community will shape how commercial applications are developed in the coming year as we never saw it before. Geronimo, JBoss and all the other Apache, Eclipse projects will make everobody's life easier. An IDE like Eclipse is very powerful due to its openess and not only on its features.
  36. Maybe we should all do a New Year Resolution list for 2005. Here are mine.

    (i) I will abandon my sinical attitude in favour of embracing optimism at work (at least this would annoy my co-workers).

    (ii) I will realise that no matter how much I care and work hard at what I do it never really changes anything.

    (iii) I really should not drink like I was 20 still and go to work the next day expecting to code.

    (iv) I will quit trying to get my wife excited about the technology I do.

    Happy New Year Folks!
  37. 2005 Prediction List[ Go to top ]

    a. Open source will beat M$ monoply

    b. Linux server will keep growing putting windoze to dust

    c. Linux Desktop will take over windoze BSOD desktop.

    d. Open office will take over M$ bloated office

    e. Apache will always be king & eating IIS market share

    f. PHP will take over ASP site

    g.Java will still kick .Not ass
  38. Intel and/or AMD will find a way to market (if not actually build) a 6Ghz CPU

    are u guys retarded? they key word is MARKET. ie, a 6ghz cpu wont exist but intel and amd will be able to convince the public that one does exist.. ie dual cores 3+3 = 6 in consumers minds.....does anyone get this? i think u guys are the ones getting played...the guy who wrote this list was joking around
  39. I hope to see more collaboration between the PHP and JSP camps. josso is a good start.
  40. Sovereign Computing[ Go to top ]

    Sovereign computing is a prediction I had made here:
    http://www.advogato.org/article/808.html

    "Most people took refuge in ignorance. In that depressing context, some people created for themselves an illusion of freedom, a palliative freedom they called 'Free Software'.

    Free Software users or not, therefore, they were no more than subjects conforming to the arbitrary laws dictated by a handful of Internet 'authorities'.

    People got fed up with that monkey business.

    They decided they would be free to share information and hardware resources with their friends at their own pleasure.

    This freedom became known as sovereign computing."


    By the end of 2005, I believe at least 1000 people will be using the first sovereign computing peer, written in Java.

    See you, Klaus.