Forrester, a source of high quality commentary and brilliant analysis, posted John R. Rymer's "The Future of Java," in which he makes insightful observations like that within ten years people may be looking somewhere else than Java.
Truly awesome work. He basis this analysis on scary stuff like this:
- Oracle will direct Java innovation. (Me: good to have someone at the wheel for once, someone who wants to make a profit and not get bought out by your competitors and knows how to make that happen)
- OpenJDK is not fully open. While he's got a point here, I guess, Oracle's at least not playing footsie with potential implementers while keeping them out in the cold anyways.
- The JCP is dying. He must have just figured this out. Meanwhile people have been saying this for a long time, and look how great the JCP has done for us, by doing stupid stuff like EJB 1.x. Recetly its better, but that's mostly because it started accepting what the industry does instead of making its own paths.
- Competition will shift to frameworks. Look out, world. Some day someone may come up with a dependency injection called "Summer," and somsone else might come up with a dependency injection library called "Milk" and they might compete. This is hard to see happening but you never know.
- Fewer young developers will learn Java first. Yeah, i agree with this one, actually. They'll learn objective C first, then move to Java so they can learn how to pogram the Android.
The funniest things are in his conclusion, which I'm splitting up to point out each funny part in its own paragraph:
These ecosystem changes will have minimal immediate impact on customers.
Customers will see predictable and stable enhancements of enterprise Java middleware. But Oracle and its close Java partners are in a classic "innovator's dilemma."
It may take a decade, but the bottom-up innovation the open source community drives will find expression elsewhere, and smaller companies that Java's high-end capabilities do not serve well will gravitate toward a new "good enough" open platform — likely based on a combination of LAMP and HTML 5 open standards.
Just amazing. Someone else pointed out how great Forrester is at this, with "Forrester: Businesses need Vista, should shun the Mac." Hee hee hee! Yeah, I bet that's advice that flew well.