Over the next two years, Microsoft won't capture more than 35% of the lucrative enterprise development market and will make little headway against its major competition, Sun Microsystems' J2EE according to a new research report from Giga Information Group.
Read Giga: Microsoft .Net is Not A J2EE Killer
What does the community think?
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35% of this market would make them the market leader by share. If BEA and IBM have 30% on the other 70 thats put Microsoft in front no?
I think they'll be very pleased being the leading vendor if this comes true.
35% .Net, 65% J2EE, not (35% MS, 30% BEA, 30% IBM).
We should read the statement "Microsoft won't capture more than 35% of the lucrative enterprise development market" as said by Giga. This is the maximum size of the piece they can achieve in the next two years...
So the formulae is
35%( max) , min ?? = Microsoft
35%( now ), max ?? = Bea Weblogic
30%( now ), max ?? = IBM Websphere
What about iPlanet,JRUN,JBOSS etc ??
So let us watch the race :)
Using your numbers, MS are still laughing, no? I take your point that J2EE still has more share but as a vendor they will be the most successful (in terms of share) app server vendor.
Also, they have the stickiest customers in that .Net is a Microsoft platform (at least for the moment). BEA and IBM customers can switch much more easily to a different J2EE vendor. It's a comfortable situation for an app server vendor.
I'm not being pro one camp or the other here, just looking at the numbers and thinking out loud, thats all.
They J2EE users can switch from one app server to the another, but they will still remain J2EE customers (so we'll still have 35% / 65%).
My experience shows that customers (especially large companies - telcos, banks etc.) first choose platform (J2EE, .NET, other?) not vendor. They invest in technology using long-term planning.
The different approach is taken by small and medium enterprises. They prefer to choose one vendor and stick to it. And this is definitely Microsoft market.
The question is - how the market is structured. IMHO the 80/20 rule apply here. 20% of companies are large enterprises. But they create 80% of the market.
"With the introduction of the .Net framework over the past year, more companies are considering the improved scalability and advanced technologies that Microsoft is offering. "
Excuse me? M$ is "improved scalability" above Java technologies?
I'll assume that was a typo...
I think they mean "improved scalability" - compared to before...
We all know that ultimately, the scalability is limited by the underlying Intel hardware... (for the moment at least)
While I really do spec Java in my company and loudly tout its advantages, particularly with regard to developer productivity and insulation from vendor lock-in, I really think the .NET scalability angle is multi-faceted and real. Recall that in the early days, before the lawsuit that's caused VJ++ to go away, the MS JVM was a top performer. Also, the single-platform nature of .NET allows the CLR to optimize and precompile to the platform to an extent that no other JVM can match. Combined with the relatively seamless ability to interface with native code (compared to JNI), we see things like order-of-magnitude performance increases in areas such as XML parsing (compared to Java Xerces, for example). Finally, the price/performance of Intel hardware continues to improve, and Windows *slowly* gets more robust and clusterable and available. Not fast enough for me to spec Wintel in the enterprise today. But how far off really?
"Recall that in the early days, before the lawsuit that's caused VJ++ to go away, the MS JVM was a top performer. "
Oh please, it's because they had proprietary insider information about their operating system! I'm sure if Sun did they could do the same thing. But the whole point of Java is NOT to do that kind of stuff - you say you like portability and non-vendor-lockin, but you can't have that and also have languages intimately integrated with operating systems. Java is bigger than that; it wasn't meant for building COM components and activex controls like j--.
And I've said it a thousand times: performance of platforms increases every single day. Don't hitch the next 5 years of your company on m$ or sun or any particular vendor because their platform is "faster" because in a year you won't notice the speed diference anyway.
Hi Tracy. At least in your response there is an implicit admission that the single platform paradigm does confer some benefit, in this case performance. And yes, I fully admit at the cost of lock-in to a vendor's business model (and in this case a particularly untrustworthy vendor). But if performance is sufficiently unimportant to wait for the "platform" to get better, then why doesn't everybody just use entity beans and CMP in their deployed systems right now? I would also submit that order-of-magnitude performance ratios can *potentially* reduce the cost of scalability to a point where the benefit of reduced lock-in becomes counterbalanced. And that's clearly the MS strategy on the server side, coupled with the increasing price/performance of *commodity* server hardware. Yes I realize J2EE runs on NT and Linux... I admit that .NET is not a threat *right now*. It will take awhile to mature. Windows on the server will take awhile to get more stable and available and clusterable and 64-bit-able. Cheap Intel servers will take awhile to deliver the kind of I/O performance a Sun box does today. I will continue to strenuously advocate Java (and in appropriate domains J2EE) for the time being. But let's keep our heads out of the sand regarding MS intentions and capabilities. They are well funded, have great marketing, and a large cadre of talented software people (mostly bought rather than groomed from within, admittedly, but they can afford the best). Further, nobody seems to be putting any barriers in front of their more onerous and distasteful "business practices". And my job (and yours) is to deliver economically optimal solutions for our employers. For me right now it's Java. But I would be highly remiss to ignore what's going on outside the Java world (as much as it might pain the readership of this site). At some point we may find that the "best" solution weighing all the factors is something rather different. I sincerely hope the Java vendors respond effectively to .NET and keep their lead. I think it will be a challenge (but I could be wrong). It would truly be easier for me, having made a large professional investment (in so many ways...) to the Java platform. But I wouldn't bet my career - or my employer's business - on it staying that way for much longer than a year or two...