YAMS (Yet Another Meta Survey) says that J2EE will stabilize on 40% of the enterprise development market, and .NET will grow to 30%. They say organizations that invested in porting their applications from VB to J2EE will be pressured by the developers to return to the Microsoft platform. They also say the two competitors for J2EE are IBM and BEA.
You can get more information here.
What do you think? Do VB developers that start programming in J2EE really want ot make the switch back? I think that it is a semi-religous thing, and that once you moved, it's like you're converted.
I think this is a very old article that has just been reposted (I guess ZDNET is losing money or something), as the article makes predictions about what will happen in 2002. :)
these surveys are meaningless. I saw one from Bank of America which surveyed CIOs and its showed J2EE gaining ground in the last few months.
Whatever the real numbers, Sun seems to be taking notice.
BTW, check out http://www.sun.com/realitycheck.
I think both platforms will co-exist. People who have already spent millions of dollar mastering J2EE deployment and development skills won't feel comfortable going through another learning curve. I guess Microsoft has good chance to get explore small medium size companies and J2EE should focus on medium to enterprise scale business.