I had the opportunity to interview Jonathan Rochelle today. Jonathan is the group product manager for Google Docs. We talked about Google Docs, collaboration, the cloud, and of course Microsoft. Google Docs is the primary alternative to SharePoint/Office and takes a different tack to this world - and Jonathan did a superb job of laying all that out.

First Jonathan talked about consumer (free) use. He said Google's goal with this is to get people to use the web more. It's not to run ads, it's not to make money, it is merely to make people more comfortable using the web. Google views this as a key strategic goal - to enable people to do more on the web. Secondarily there is the business version that has additional functionality added to make it a strong solution for businesses.

My next question was the key one - how does Google Docs compare to SharePoint/Office 2010? Jonathan started with a spot-on observation, that the new Microsoft release is really a giant swing toward the cloud. He is very happy to see this because Microsoft's move in this direction is a big vote of confidence in putting apps up on the cloud, and that validates Docs.

He then talked about the power of applications that provide collaboration via the cloud. This was interesting for a couple of reasons. First Jonathan focused on the new paradigm of placing all of these apps on the cloud, not about Google vs. Microsoft. He's a strong believer in this (aren't most of us?) and clearly what he finds cool is that Microsoft has validated this approach big time.

entire interview on Huffington Post

I don't think it's the cool apps that will own the cloud.  I'd say whoever is providing the most reliable cloud would be the big winner! I'm a very big pro-tech person...however, people should know that as soon as you deploy your app in the cloud is kind of like putting a "bullseye" symbol on your butt.  This is or will be the new playground for hackers to come.

Also, I've used google doc... man.. that app is so slow that it's unuseable.  Don't thinkg googledoc is a good example of the cloud.

I had a thought the other day and I was thinking maybe someone else here might help me work through it.

So there's all this hype about the cloud right now.  I think there's a cloud conference every other day.  Vendors are pushing the cloud really hard.  On the other hand, I get the feeling that most companies are a bit ambilvalent to the cloud.

Don't get me wrong, if you are starting up a new web company, the cloud is the way to go.  I'd probably recommend some sort of local backup or redundancy as time/money allows but it really is a game changer.

But for personal computing, I'm struggling with it a bit.  The overall trend is that computers are getting cheaper and more powerful (more parallel power.)  Operating systems are converging to unix/linux.  So this means people will want to buy less computing power?  That doesn't seem to make sense as a economic argument.  I think we need to keep in mind that hosted applications are mostly convenient for the vendor.  I'm not getting that the users are dying to use applications that are hosted online.  I don't think they care much about that.  What they want is networked applications, not applications on the network.

I was talking to an IT 'consultant' the other day and I tried to start talking about my interest in SCA, BPEL, etc. and he quickly silenced me with blah, blah, blah, that's not important...It's all going to the cloud. Programmers, developers are obsolete...It's all going to the cloud. Ok, fine, guess I'll get a new career. So, yeah, I agree, the hype is overwhelming. But, consider this. I wanted to try the some of the Oracle SOA Suite tutorials (don't flame me). That requires an Oracle database, an Oracle WLS cluster of at least one managed server, with an admin server, JDeveloper, and my browser at a minimum. Plus, I'm running an email client, all of my corporate security, corporate spyware, corporate IT required software, etc. The corporate laptop running XP just isn't up to the task. So AWS EC2 is my only hope. It's cheaper than having to go out, buy an expensive laptop for personal use just to try out a couple of new products as they come onto the market. I think you're making this point when you say that new startups should use EC2 rather than invest in a lot of expensive hardware. I think the same thing applies to individuals, like me, who just want to try something different, but don't have the resources available either personally or via corporate support. Not trying to hype the cloud, but it does offer an alternative to small fry with an idea and no place to try it out.

I was talking to an IT 'consultant' the other day and I tried to start talking about my interest in SCA, BPEL, etc. and he quickly silenced me with blah, blah, blah, that's not important...It's all going to the cloud. Programmers, developers are obsolete...It's all going to the cloud.

Whoever told you that is an idiot.  I don't know how long you have been doing this but I've been hearing about new technologies that will make developers 'obsolete' since my first year in out of school.  It scared me the first time.  It scared me a little bit less the second time.  Now I just find it funny.  If anything more developers will be needed.  Unless the cloud is a sentient self-programming entity, the cloud doesn't make programming obsolete.  There will be plenty of need for programmers for cloud based applications.  If anything, IT programming in the future will be thought of less as a special task separate from the business function and more of a core part of that function.

Ok, fine, guess I'll get a new career. So, yeah, I agree, the hype is overwhelming. But, consider this. I wanted to try the some of the Oracle SOA Suite tutorials (don't flame me). That requires an Oracle database, an Oracle WLS cluster of at least one managed server, with an admin server, JDeveloper, and my browser at a minimum. Plus, I'm running an email client, all of my corporate security, corporate spyware, corporate IT required software, etc. The corporate laptop running XP just isn't up to the task. So AWS EC2 is my only hope. It's cheaper than having to go out, buy an expensive laptop for personal use just to try out a couple of new products as they come onto the market. I think you're making this point when you say that new startups should use EC2 rather than invest in a lot of expensive hardware. I think the same thing applies to individuals, like me, who just want to try something different, but don't have the resources available either personally or via corporate support. Not trying to hype the cloud, but it does offer an alternative to small fry with an idea and no place to try it out.

I absolutely think that in the future more an more of the backend of systems will be cloud-based.  I'm not sure we are ready for this in terms of security or reliability but it's happening anyway.  The pioneers will get burned and after the hype wears thin, more companies will go that direction.

What I am questioning is the assumption that users want all their client applications to run in the cloud.  I think users want their applications to connected to the web and all it has to offer but I'm not convinced that people won't want programs that run most of their code on hardware in their hands or in their laps.

If people truly did want less computing power even as it got cheaper that would make computing power a inferior good or even a giffen good in economic terms.  That's an odd sort of situation where you want less of something as it gets cheaper and your income goes up.  Normally that only happens with things you have to buy (like food) because that's all you can afford.

Hosting applications on the web is good for the producers but not necessarily the consumers.  I think it's important to not forget that as we listen to people so confidently proclaim the future.

I've been doing this for over 25 years, VAX FORTRAN ---> Java/JEE. At many points along the way I've been told that programmers, developers, etc. are done. At first I worried, now when I hear this, it is a signal that the next, new, killer technology will only mean that programmers and developers will become ever more valuable. My IT consultant friend addressess management, not developers, so the cloud hype is the latest sales pitch. SOA isn't the acronym du jour anymore, so they need something new to hype. They fail to realize that the 'devil in the details' has been, is being, and will be dealt with by saavy technologists, programmers, developers, etc. I'm sure we will all find job security in the cloud.

I am a big fan of having a set of images that I can store and pull out whenever I need them to show POC's, run examples, etc. without having to have the amount of memory and CPU required for a JEE Cluster, ESB Cluster, DB, IDE all on my laptop or a set of host computers that I have to administer. Security isn't really an issue for me in this scenario, but a corporation running a customer facing app in the cloud will have security concerns that I'm not sure are adequately addressed in a public cloud compute environment. I'm sure to be deluged by those that will contradict this and, no doubt, understand it better than I. But this points out the need for more technologists that understand these issues, not less.

Cloud, or no cloud, I'm not going anywhere.